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Republicans are mostly defending solidly red turf in 2026, which will make it difficult for Democrats to pick up the minimum four seats they need to reverse the GOP’s 53-47 edge in the Senate (three would be insufficient because Republican Vice President JD Vance holds the tie-breaking vote).
But Collins leaving would make a Democratic flip in Maine more likely. After all, in 12 out of 14 cases in midterms from 2006 through 2022, the president’s party lost a Senate seat that it was defending in a state that the other party carried in the last presidential election. The two exceptions? In 2006, Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe easily won reelection in Maine despite its blue lean, while Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin overcame West Virginia’s dark red hue to win the 2010 special election for the seat previously held by the late Democratic Sen. Robert Byrd.
A surprise retirement in Maine does have recent precedent, too. In February 2012, Snowe shocked election watchers when she revealed that she would not seek reelection. Her last-minute announcement came only a couple of weeks before Maine’s mid-March candidate filing deadline for its June primary. A well-known moderate (like her longtime colleague Collins), Snowe pointed to her dissatisfaction with the increasing partisan rancor and lack of civility on Capitol Hill as core main reasons for leaving office. Left-leaning independent former Gov. Angus King won the seat that November, and he has caucused with Senate Democrats ever since.
As it stands, no top-tier Democrats have challenged Collins, but her hypothetical departure would probably cause many dominoes to fall across the Maine political scene. One potential aspirant to succeed a retiring Collins might be Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, a centrist Democrat from the 2nd Congressional District. Golden once worked as an aide for Collins, so he always seemed unlikely to run against her, even before he announced his 2026 reelection campaign. But while a Golden bid for Senate absent Collins might work out favorably for Democrats in the Senate, it would also give Republicans an easier path to retaking the 2nd District, which Trump carried 54%-45% in 2024 — the reddest House seat held by a Democrat.
Challenging Collins would be difficult, so it’s telling that four notable Democrats have instead entered the race to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Janet Mills. That quartet includes Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, former state Senate President Troy Jackson, business executive Angus King III (Sen. King’s son), and former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree (daughter of Democratic Rep. Chellie Pingree, Golden’s U.S. House colleague who lost to Collins in Maine’s 2002 Senate race). However, a Collins retirement could prompt one or more of them to switch to the Senate contest. Interestingly, one local columnist suggested last month that King the Younger should consider that move, which would make history were he to run and win — no parent and child have ever simultaneously held both of a state’s Senate seats.
With all this being said, Collins remains more likely to run again than not. Besides having said that she plans to run, Collins also raised $2.4 million in the second quarter of 2025. That figure sits far above the small sums we sometimes see from incumbents who end up retiring. Additionally, a pro-Collins super PAC collected $5.6 million in the first half of 2025, and the National Republican Senatorial Committee is running digital ads in support of Collins. The five-term incumbent also stands to make history if she wins reelection in 2026. A sixth term would make Collins the longest-serving senator in Maine’s history, surpassing the just over 30 years that Republican William P. Frye held office from 1881 to 1911.
The relative inaction of Maine Democrats is also revealing. The only Democrat of note presently running against Collins is former congressional staffer Jordan Wood, who raised $1.6 million in the second quarter. But the elder Pingree and Golden are both seeking reelection to the House, four other major Democrats are running for governor, and even state Auditor Matt Dunlap is considering challenging Golden in the 2nd District Democratic primary rather than take on Collins.
Of course, there is still plenty of time for the political environment to change. New information, such as the upcoming November 2025 elections, could especially prompt Collins and others to reassess their options. But there’s no doubt that a Collins retirement, while currently unlikely, would be a seismic event in Maine and national politics.
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